"Variables" As They Say...

Assalaamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullah,

In all the crime statistics I've come acrossed, I only found two or three variables against which they've taken out the rate of crime in some area, mostly the no. of incidents, population, location and time. No wonder they cant predict where the next crime is going to take place.

For instance, take this example... a thief ABC has done 10 robberies in "Alpha" and 2 robberies in "Beta". If you take out the stats, you'll be knowing that area "Alpha" has more chances of being robbed, as it has high rate of robberies. But what if ABC decides he's done enough robberies in Alpha and he now intends to move to Beta or "Gamma" maybe... all your stats and predictions go wrong over here. [Though chances are very low, but such variations exist afterall.]

This is just "One thing", Intentions-of-a-Criminal. There are loads of factors invovled in any crime to take place. And a thorough and careful study is needed to analyze what combinations-of-factors will occur at-what-conditions to create an environment which will allow any crime to happen.

We came up with a list of Possible Variables or Factors that MAY affect the system:

• Suspect
• Victim
• Environment / Surroundings
• Isolation Level
• WeaponsSpecification of things robbed
• Location / Area
• Time of day
• Day of week
• Week of Month
• Month of Year
• Population
• Nature of Crime / Intentions
• Previous Incidents in the area
• Previous Crimes by the Criminal / Suspect
• Religious Views of Masses
• Political Views of Masses
• Literacy Rate
• Employment Rate
• Suspect Data
• Demographics
• eye colour
• complexion
• features
• build
• personality
• clothes
• finger prints
• foot prints
• Communication
• Resources
• Car / Bike / On Foot
• Way of robbery / crime

An informative article by FBI on the Variables Effecting Crime.

So now you know, we know, they'll know ... "Its not a simple game!".

Is Taudi U Kumullah.