The Model 1.0.1

Assalamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullahi Wa Barakatuhu,

There is no abstract art. You must always start with something. Afterward you can remove all traces of reality. ~ PICASSO

I remember a famous dialogue of one of my favorite tv shows:
"Have you ever seen an artist draw a picture? He starts with a dot, which is transformed in a straight line and then becomes a complete picture eventually!"

I don't know where the "Dot" came in...[There must've been one somewhere] but I do know we actually started from a "Straight Line". It may be the simplest thing in the huge field of Mathematics, and it may have the easiest equation i.e. y=mx+c but as we dug into it we discovered "wonders".

How simply dots and lines can lead you to the path of future is what Regression holds.

The journey was started with Simple Linear Regression, then we took a turn towards Multiple Linear Regression, which didn’t suffice so we had to touch a part of Multiple Non Linear Regression. The journey had its own ups and downs and there's still a lot to unearth but the positive side of the picture is: We were able to produce a thing which looks a little like “MODEL”!!!!

The Phases

[Click to Enlarge]
Image Courtesy: Maria Khan

"Variables" As They Say...

Assalaamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullah,

In all the crime statistics I've come acrossed, I only found two or three variables against which they've taken out the rate of crime in some area, mostly the no. of incidents, population, location and time. No wonder they cant predict where the next crime is going to take place.

For instance, take this example... a thief ABC has done 10 robberies in "Alpha" and 2 robberies in "Beta". If you take out the stats, you'll be knowing that area "Alpha" has more chances of being robbed, as it has high rate of robberies. But what if ABC decides he's done enough robberies in Alpha and he now intends to move to Beta or "Gamma" maybe... all your stats and predictions go wrong over here. [Though chances are very low, but such variations exist afterall.]

This is just "One thing", Intentions-of-a-Criminal. There are loads of factors invovled in any crime to take place. And a thorough and careful study is needed to analyze what combinations-of-factors will occur at-what-conditions to create an environment which will allow any crime to happen.

We came up with a list of Possible Variables or Factors that MAY affect the system:

• Suspect
• Victim
• Environment / Surroundings
• Isolation Level
• WeaponsSpecification of things robbed
• Location / Area
• Time of day
• Day of week
• Week of Month
• Month of Year
• Population
• Nature of Crime / Intentions
• Previous Incidents in the area
• Previous Crimes by the Criminal / Suspect
• Religious Views of Masses
• Political Views of Masses
• Literacy Rate
• Employment Rate
• Suspect Data
• Demographics
• eye colour
• complexion
• features
• build
• personality
• clothes
• finger prints
• foot prints
• Communication
• Resources
• Car / Bike / On Foot
• Way of robbery / crime

An informative article by FBI on the Variables Effecting Crime.

So now you know, we know, they'll know ... "Its not a simple game!".

Is Taudi U Kumullah.

Going Technical...

Assalaamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullah,

It is 15th July, 2007. Not that you can’t see the date above [or is it below?], I am just reminding myself that 6th Month is about to depart and the progress of FYP is Zero.

With a brand new register reserved just for the project, a File with all the surveys, analysis and different documents filed neatly in it I’ve been preparing myself to start working. But for the last few posts I've only been babbling about my Final Year Project. It is now time " We go Tech !! "

Talking about the Technical details for "Forecasting", the most technical part was to decide the "Techniques" to be used in the project. Keeping in mind we dont just have to make the models, but would have to "code" them too, we came up with following techniques after a lot of searching and guidance by our Supervisor and teachers.

• Regression [Linear wont help, therefore Multiple Non Linear!]
• Poisson Distribution
• Time Series Analysis
• Bayesian Networks (and maybe Neural Networks)

Yes, We're back to Statistics [and not to forget, a LOT OF Maths!] as we'll be "Forecasting" [No joke, right?]. Along with that we'll be needing bulk of data to forecast ofcourse. That is one big necessity of the project. Lets leave the "Data about Data" for some other post.

Up till now we've only started working on Regression. Extrapolation is just a small part of it. Forecasting uses a lot of it, but the results are not so accurate, therefore we'd be needing the rest of the techniques to improve the end product, thus having precise results.

That is all for Techniques. Stay tuned for more details.

Is Taudi'u Kum'Ullah.

P.S: Check the Downloads Section for the Dummy Documentation.

... and the Story Begins !!

Assalaamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullah,

Though the story had first started when I was in my 2nd year, because that is the time when we were young and Innocent enough to believe the Seniors and their stories of FYP.

It used to sound so Attractive to our ears then, Did I say we were Innocent? Make that "Dumb".

Thanks to our seniors for introducing the "Term" to us, it didn't come to us as a Shock, when we finally stepped into our Final Year. Only if we'd thought about it right from the 2nd year, deciding "What to Make?" and "How to Make?" wouldn't have been such a difficult task.

Four months have passed already, since my Semester started. I, realizing the Importance of the FYP, not wasting a single day, bugging all the teachers around, and dragging my only group mate along DID come to one conclusion: "This is REALLY not something Easy" :P

To make Long story Short, We got an "IDEA" and a "SUPERVISOR" to start our work with, after maybe a Month's hard work.

We gave a Name to our Project Idea: " Crime Forecasting System". The Attractive it sounded, the Difficult it turned out to be. Only realized it, when we Finalized it.

Teachers were happy, Parents were Worried... and My friends STILL think I am crazy to opt such a difficult project. Though I sometimes doubt my abilities and think about changing the project, but then:

" Unless a man undertakes more than he possibly can do, he will never do all that he can." [Henry Drummond]

Moreover, with Allah's help always with you, and the Prayers of your elders, You'd be stupid not to believe in yourself and not taking the path of your choice, no matter how difficult and full of hardships it is.

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." [Mark Twain]

Signing Off.

Fee Amanillah.

The Horrors of FYP

Assalaamu Alaikum Wa Rahmatullahi Wa Barakatuhu,

I came to know a totally different world just as my Final Year Started. A world of responsibilities, a world of cheerful and horrifying experiences, a world full of Fun and Tension, a world Full of LIFE!

FYP - short for FINAL YEAR PROJECT is one BIG PART of this world, which leaves you stupified, horrified, terrified, petrified throughout the year, more because of the Authorities who portray it as such.

Why its a matter of death and life ( as your Degree depends on it), why the teachers become so Merciless when it comes to FYP Evaluation, why FYP has to be SO DIFFICULT and why all the problems are so affiliated to FYP - its all still MYSTERY to Me.

Stay tuned to this journey of " MY FYP " and find all the answers to the above questions, JUST AS I EXPLORE IT!! :)

Fee Amanillah.